After the seemingly failed pursuit of Frenkie de Jong and rumours of Adrien Rabiot, it was a major shock to see Manchester United’s £70 million acquisition of serial Champions League winner Casemiro from Real Madrid. Undoubtedly, the Brazilian is in the upper echelon of defensive midfielders, and United have been crying out for a holding midfielder for years – but this transfer may not be the correct method of filling the team’s greatest hole.
Going as far as to say that Casemiro is not Manchester United standard is crazy. High player scores for defending volume (81 out of 100) and possession quality (66 out of 100) are signs of a player who can make a difference both on and off the field.
Defensive volume is where Casemiro really shines. A 96th percentile ranking for clearances and a 93rd percentile ranking for blocks are testament to Casemiro’s positional awareness, putting himself in the right place at critical moments to stop opposition attacks. The high number of tackles won reflect his willingness to get stuck into challenges. Whilst Fred is also willing to get involved in duels (ranking in the 73rd percentile for tackles won), McTominay is less inclined to do so (30th percentile). Having Casemiro next to Fred in a double pivot would allow for a lot more balance in defensive transition, with both midfielders being ready to make a tackle when needed; putting Casemiro at the base of a three-man midfield would give Fred the license to confidently do his defensive work high up the field with the knowledge of a safety net behind him. An established rock in midfield will lessen the load on the rest of the team.
On the ball, Casemiro is very reliable. An important aspect to zoom in on is his ability to play the ball under pressure. 83rd percentile rankings for passes under pressure and for being the target of passes, coupled with an 86.6% pass completion rate, tell a story of a player that would be a good fit for United’s system of playing out from the back. An infamous example of United’s need for a comfortable holding midfielder is the second of Brentford’s four goals last weekend. De Gea plays a ball to Eriksen, who is unable to find a pass back to a centre-back. Brentford had been training to press that ball to Eriksen, successfully did so, and scored. A player like Casemiro would have the calmness in possession to find and make a correct pass (although De Gea’s decision making in possession as well as his distribution quality must also be questioned). His ability to switch play and get the ball forward into the final third are clear, and whilst he may not be a progressive carrier of the ball (35th percentile ranking for progressive carries), it cannot take away from the overall value that a player of Casemiro’s quality in possession will add to United’s attacking build-up play.
A score of 47 for defensive quality may come as a surprise but looking at the metrics that determine that score provide a clearer insight into Casemiro’s game. The main metric that drags his score down is errors – mistakes leading to an opposition shot. An average of 0.08 errors per 90 is equivalent to an error being made every 12.5 matches (3 errors in a season is not much of a cause for concern), and fbref.com’s percentile rankings are calculated across all midfielders and not just holding ones (a mistake by a defensive midfielder is much more likely to lead to a shot than one made by an attack minded centre midfielder position higher up the pitch), so fans shouldn’t be too worried about the 3rd percentile ranking being shown.
The two other metrics pulling Casemiro’s score down are examples of the problem that may come from United’s transfer activity this season. A high number of fouls being committed, and yellow cards being received will lead to an increased risk of missing games through suspension. Casemiro will also turn 31 this season, and whilst other holding midfielders have been able to stay at the top of their game at much older ages, any injuries that he might receive could permanently dampen his output. United have still not got depth in that defensive midfield spot. Lisandro Martinez will stay in his centre defensive role, whilst Christian Eriksen and Scott McTominay have both shown a lack of aptitude in that position. Casemiro has the pressure of being the only viable defensive midfielder at the club – a very risky way of moving forward.
The club that sold Casemiro is a good example of what United should be doing. Real Madrid still have Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga in their squad, ready to play in that holding midfield position. Both players were learning from Casemiro, and now with the Brazilian gone, they are ready to seamlessly transition into regular starting roles. Back in Manchester, another young defensive midfielder needs to be brought in as cover for Casemiro in the short term, and as a successor in the long run.
Finding that successor should be a priority for United right now, and that player should be showing the potential to match the same qualities as Casemiro does currently. A willingness to tackle as well as a sense of calmness on and off the ball are important. Do United see Frenkie de Jong (if they can figure out how to convince him to leave Barcelona) moving into that role once he drops off? Perhaps the club should look towards their academy and prospects like James Garner?
Of course, there are also benefits that come with signing Casemiro outside of his footballing ability. A winning mentality, experience, and a relationship with Cristiano Ronaldo and Raphael Varane will be invaluable to United. But to what extent will that leadership matter given United’s internal affairs? How important is a new leader when they sit under Harry Maguire in the hierarchy? Will his winning attitude erode as he is surrounded by the accused prima donnas in the squad? In any case, United fans should be excited to see Casemiro, but in a few years, they may find themselves in the same position as before – looking for a defensive midfielder.
