Midfielders are a hot topic right now. A large amount of Europe’s elite teams are in a bit of a midfield deficit, and are looking to strengthen their ranks in this summer transfer window (unless you’re Manchester City, in which case you can just convert a centre-back into a progressive midfielder). Luckily, there is no shortage of high-level talent coming through. Declan Rice and Moisés Caicedo are two of those talents.
Englishman Declan Rice has just come out of a two-sided West Ham season, which at one point looked like a relegation fight but ended as a Conference League fairytale. Moisés Caicedo’s Brighton team have also subverted expectations, qualifying for continental football for the first time. Both midfielders contributed heavily to their team’s successes this season, so it is no surprise that the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Bayern Munich have been plotting moves to swipe them from their clubs.
Whilst United seem to be targeting one or the other, there have been rumours of Chelsea and Arsenal potentially signing both together. The question is: would they work together in the same side?
The Stats Don’t Lie
There’s no doubt that both midfielders would raise the talent floor of any club they join, and their stats tell this story.
Looking at Rice, indispensable ability in possession will make him a valuable acquisition for any side looking to keep the ball. This is highlighted by high percentile rankings for pass completion (85th) and take-on success (70th). Rice is a press-resistant ball carrier who is comfortable making passes of all types. When on the ball, Rice is forward thinking: high rankings for progressive passes (81st) and carries (83rd) are elite. This is especially high within a West Ham side who ranked 17th out of 20 for possession this season.
Off the ball, Rice is a reliable shield for any back line. High rankings for interceptions (93rd) and recoveries (98th) suggest that the Englishman is a good reader of the game. A good success rate against dribblers (93rd) coupled with a low number of fouls committed (93rd) suggests that when he does get into a duel, he often comes out on top.
Of course, Moisés Caicedo is a top-level midfielder as well. Just like Rice, a high pass completion (94th percentile) suggests that he would be an asset for possession-heavy teams. In fact, Brighton under De Zerbi this season have averaged the third highest amount of possession in the Premier League this season. Caicedo would require less time to adapt to Arsenal or United’s game compared to Rice.
Defensively, Caicedo is no pushover. Again, a high number of interceptions (90th) and recoveries (80th) highlight a player who can read the game. A high volume of tackles (86th) for a player in a team that rarely has to fight for the ball shows a tenacity and will to regain as well as retain possession. Creatively, Caicedo and Rice both contribute towards their teams’ attacking output, with high rankings for shot creating actions (65th and 70th respectively).
Two of a Kind?
Both players both seem to be affluent in similar aspects of their game, which begs the question: are they just the same type of player? Apart from squad depth, buying two players that do the same thing can lead to one-dimensional play and predictability. To answer this, let’s look closer at the disparities that do exist between the midfielders.
This comparison dumbbell chart helps us to visualise the differences between Rice and Caicedo in terms of percentile rankings. For the most part, both players are fairly close together, which a lot of their percentile rankings differing by less than 15. However, there are some larger differences that we can identify.
Moisés Caicedo ranks 34 percentiles higher than Declan Rice for tackles. This is especially surprising given that Brighton are in possession of the ball a lot more than West Ham. Team possession also contradicts Rice’s seemingly much better ability to avoid fouls (an 82-percentile difference). Caicedo passes the ball into the penalty area a lot more than Rice (41-percentile difference), but Rice is more willing to carry the ball forward compared to Caicedo (39-percentile difference).
It does seem like Caicedo and Rice aren’t exact copies of each other on the pitch, but this can be explained. High numbers of tackles don’t necessarily indicate defensive ability. Caicedo tackles more and commits more (potentially tactical) fouls. This can be good for mitigating counterattacking threat from opponents. Rice makes marginally more interceptions and is more proactive in recovering the ball. He’s someone that helps the team when defending in their own third.
We can also look at the progressive passes received by both players, with Rice receiving a lot fewer progressive passes than Caicedo. This suggests that Rice holds back as the team moves forward in buildup, whilst Caicedo pushes up.
How Can Teams Use “Ricedo”?
If deployed together, Caicedo would be asked to play further up the pitch with Rice asked to hold and screen the backline. In a midfield three, Rice could also play as a box-to-box midfielder with a more static defensive midfielder behind. For example, we could see a midfield trio of Rice and Caicedo with Martin Ødegaard at Arteta‘s Arsenal, or double pivot behind Bruno Fernandes at United.
Buying and playing both Rice and Caicedo shouldn’t be expected given the large amount of money West Ham and Brighton will command for their star players. So which one should be a priority? The answer depends on the needs of the squad.
At Manchester United for example, Moisés Caicedo would be the perfect upgrade on Christian Eriksen. The ability to move the ball forward and direct buildup play whilst protecting the team in transition is essential in allowing Erik ten Hag to develop United on the pitch. However, Declan Rice can do this as well as covering Casemiro’s role – something that will help the team a lot given the Brazilian’s disciplinary issues this season.
United need a press-resistant ball progressor to help them play out from the back, and Rice is elite at this. Creatively, the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Jadon Sancho and a new striker will help to grab the goals. Rice can help to facilitate this. Whilst probably the more expensive option, Declan Rice is probably the more holistic signing compared to Moisés Caicedo if only one could be obtained – but both would be amazing signings.
Analysis like this will determine which of the two to purchase. In any case, whether playing together or at different clubs to each other, expect to see both Rice and Caicedo continuing to shine next season.
