Manchester United need a striker. That much is abundantly clear and serves as an asterisk above any analysis done on United players. Without someone leading the line, the likes of Jadon Sancho and Bruno Fernandes cannot shine, and Erik ten Hag’s vision cannot fully be implemented.
Over the course of this transfer window, many names will be linked to United – fans will be used to the “circus” that comes with the annual summer spin. Unfortunately, being “interested in” or “strongly admiring” a striker won’t score you 20 league goals. However, if any of those stories are to be believed, Rasmus Højlund and Randal Kolo Muani might just get you there.
Both strikers have been heavily connected to Manchester over the past couple of weeks – but who should United look to prioritise?
To some, signing Atalanta’s Rasmus Højlund feels like United very much trying to sign an Erling Haaland knock-off. However, the Danish striker is no sideshow. Højlund excels in his attacking movement: his high percentile ranking for non-penalty xG per shot (89) highlights his ability to find high quality positions. His teammates trust in this ability too, leading to his 99th percentile ranking for progressive passes received. When on the ball, Højlund very much looks to get into the penalty area and fashion out chances.
Elite rankings for carries into the penalty area (93) and penalty area touches (93) as well as lower rankings for passing metrics suggest that the 20 year old perhaps isn’t looking at slower, linkup style play, preferring to do the job himself. This could be seen as a pro and a con; United’s current wingers and midfielders are known for their propensity to pass the ball around the penalty area. The efficiency and consistent finishing (94th percentile ranking for Shots on Target %) will nonetheless be an asset to a lackluster United side in that area. Højlund is raw, and with a known coach in ten Hag, United fans can expect his game to become more well-rounded.
Randal Kolo Muani has been linked with United for quite some time now, especially since the Frankfurt striker’s good peformances at the World Cup. Unlike Højlund, the 24 year old Frenchman is very willing to get involved in team build up. High rankings for expected goals assisted (89) and key passes (76) suggest that Kolo Muani looks to give opportunities to teammates in good shooting positions – which can be synergetic with players like Marcus Rashford.
Kolo Muani prefers to carry the ball into dangerous areas. High numbers for progressive carries (93) and carries into the penalty area (98) suggest that he can do well in a team that looks to emphasise transitional play. A good ball striker (73rd percentile for non-penalty goals minus xG), Kolo Muani is effective in all phases of play, also being a good reader of the play and racking up high numbers for ball recoveries (90).
With a lot of minutes in his belt this season for Eintracht Frankfurt, Kolo Muani would be a sensible signing for United, with hints of Anthony Martial (but replace the injury record with good finishing).
Of course, Manchester United cannot buy both players, even if they wanted to. It is very well known that the budget United have is limited, so choosing one of the two will be essential. We can look at comparison data to get an idea of which forward would be better suited for ten Hag’s side.
Unlike when we looked at the similarities between Moises Caicedo and Declan Rice, we can see some clear differences between Rasmus Højlund and Kolo Muani’s games. The largest difference between the two is Kolo Muani’s much greater defensive output.
A combined difference of 64 percentiles when looking at blocks, tackles and interceptions give the impression that Kolo Muani would be a much better fit for Manchester United in the press. However, it must be noted that Eintracht Frankfurt as a team do their defending higher up the pitch compared to Atalanta – team playstyle very much affects a player’s statistics.
A second clear difference is Kolo Muani’s influence in possession. The Frenchman ranks higher than Højlund in creative metrics like progressive carries and xAG. With Højlund ranking higher for more poacher-esque metrics like npxG per shot and penalty area touches, we can reasonably class him as more of a penalty box striker and Kolo Muani as more of a complete forward (despite Kolo Muani ranking 33 percentiles higher for xG overperformance).
In the box, both players are somewhat similar. Kolo Muani likes to stay central, whilst Højlund is willing to take chances from wider positions. Both players aren’t elite in the air (39th and 52nd percentile rankings for aerial duels), which means that cutbacks into the centre of the penalty area will help both strikers score. Luckily, this corresponds with United’s attacking playstyle.
United want a striker who can get onto the end of the chances that they create. They need a forward who is willing to get into the box and be a presence. As shown in the scatterplot above, Both players tend to shoot when given the ball more than the average forward. This will help to prevent useless passing around the penalty area, something that United have been fond of in past seasons.
Both strikers also get themselves into better shooting positions for their shots compared to the average European forward. However, Højlund is especially elite when it comes to finding spaces for shots.
Putting all of these data-based fragments together, we have a pretty clear image. If United want a striker to focus solely on getting forward and fashioning chances for himself, utilising the creativity of midfielders behind him, then Rasmus Højlund is the right choice. If United want a more balanced player however, who can link up well with wingers whilst also finishing moves himself, then Randal Kolo Muani would be the better pick.
Of course, what this analysis hasn’t taken into account is price. With Kolo Muani rated at around 100 million euros and Højlund rated at around half of that, it suddenly becomes quite obvious who United should go for – but given their poor track record in transfer windows, don’t be surprised if we see Wout Weghorst up top next season…
