In a world of false 9s, “9.5”s, and actual midfielders playing up front, it seems like the poacher is something of a lost art in football. You can call them tap in merchants or goal hangers, but the finishing ability and inevitability of a poacher is an asset for any team. If you can sign a poacher, especially a younger one, and build around getting them chances, all you need to do is sit back and watch the goals pour in. I think that AS Monaco are reaping the benefits of signing Mika Biereth this January for that exact reason – and that Arsenal are regretting selling him last summer…
Monaco signed Biereth from Sturm Graz for 13 million Euros after the Danish striker left Arsenal in July last year – something that should already catch the eye. Sturm Graz have been something of a striking factory of late: Emanuel Emegha, Kelvin Yeboah and Rasmus Hojlund (pre-Atalanta) are all exports from the Danish club. Biereth was the top goalscorer in the league when he left, with 16 combined goals and assists (11 goals, 5 assists) in 16 matches.
However, it’s his record at Monaco since joining that has fostered attention. Ten goals in his first eight games is a great feat by itself, but three hattricks in that time is good enough for anyone to be keeping an eye on him.
I think Mika Biereth is the best poacher in Europe right now, and his interesting stats this season back this up.
[DISCLAIMER: A content warning for Low Sample Sizes needs to be addressed. Ten games aren’t many for a player, and when comparing per 90 stats, Biereth’s numbers will be slightly inflated, given that he has played fewer minutes than other strikers who have been at their clubs across the season. That being said, Mika’s playstyle and strengths are still very, very clear.]
The Big Picture
Firstly, let’s quickly mention Mika’s weaknesses. A good measure of praise that can be given to him is the fact that his clear weaknesses, suggested by low percentile rankings in certain metrics, aren’t relevant to his game or his strengths much at all. If we look at Biereth through the lens of a poacher, his low take-on success (1st percentile) isn’t an issue. Alongside low rankings for progressive carries and carries into the penalty area, we can tell that dribbling isn’t part of his game by design. For a poacher, who is meant to operate in the often-crowded penalty area, having a low percentile ranking for short pass completion (13th) is expected.
As for his strengths, throughout this article, I want to highlight why Biereth fits the statistical criteria I have for an elite poacher. We will be judging him on three general, poacher-focused criteria: a preference for operating close to the goal, a high propensity for taking shots, and great finishing ability. The following sections will serve as banks of evidence to prove that Biereth ticks off each of these criteria.
Criterion 1: Operating Close to the Goal
Looking back at Biereth’s percentile rankings, we can already see evidence that the Dane likes to play in the opposition area. A high ranking for penalty area touches (96th) suggests that he is very active in that area, and his lower rankings for progressive passes (53rd) and carries into the penalty area (25th) suggest that most of his actions are taking place in the box.
We can also look at the general location of his touches to prove that he likes to work close to the goal. Looking at the number of touches taken in the penalty area as a proportion of overall touches, Biereth ranks third (28.6%), only behind Goncalo Ramos and Erling Haaland. When he’s on the ball, it’s normally in the box.
We can also look at this on a match-level basis. One of Mika’s best games so far was during Monaco’s league game against Reims, where he scored one of his three hattricks.
During this game, he only took 25 touches. However, most of these touches were very central, and in or close to the penalty area. A good portion of his touches were taken beyond the penalty spot as well. Looking at his touch plot, his territory (the area generated by the touches taken within one standard deviation of his average touch location) was very clearly within the upper area of zone 10 and the penalty area – a poacher’s territory.
What can be established is that Biereth clearly isn’t the type of player to drop deep and help with buildup. He’s a finisher, someone who definitely meets the first criteria that qualifies a striker as an elite poacher.
Criterion 2: A High Propensity to Take Shots
Mika Biereth likes to shoot. Again, returning to his percentile rankings and looking specifically at his shot-related numbers, we have clear evidence that Biereth is a volume striker. An 89th percentile ranking for shots per 90 shows this.
Another quality that we can look at his movement. A good poacher takes chances, an elite poacher creates his own chances by getting into good shooting positions. We can look at a player’s non-penalty xG and their non-penalty xG per shot to quantify this. Luckily, Biereth performs brilliantly on both. Biereth ranks top for European forwards on non-penalty xG per 90, and a 97th percentile ranking for non-penalty xG per shot is just as impressive. Not only are Biereth’s shots being taken from good positions, but he’s creating those high-quality chances very often in matches. This suggests that his movement is a consistent and active part of his game, which put him in the upper echelon of poachers.
Biereth shoots a lot, but is that the main focus of his game? Of course it would be surprising, given all this evidence, if he were a passer more than a shooter, but it’s always good to check. His action plot measures a player’s propensity to carry, pass or shoot based of what he does per 100 touches (compared to other forwards). Being closer to one of the triangle’s vertices is an indication that a player favours the action associated with that vertex. In the case of Biereth, sitting closest to the shooting vertex suggest that Biereth does indeed have a propensity to shoot.
So, we have evidence that Biereth likes to get the ball close to the opposition goal and that he loves to shoot when he once he gets it. This is a great sign of a poacher – but what’s the worth in all that movement and forward thinking if he can’t finish the chances he gets?
Criterion 3: Can he finish?
Proving that Biereth is a good finisher doesn’t require much visualisation or calculation. This season, he ranks in the 80th percentile for goals less non-penalty xG. This is proof of a good finisher – or consistently poor goalkeeping performance against Monaco across the season (which feels more like conspiracy than statistical analysis).
One minor point to criticise Mika on, however, is his low aerial duel win rate (29th percentile). Standing at 6’2”, Biereth isn’t super tall compared to the defenders he is likely to face, and he doesn’t face many duels in general (4.46 per 90), but adding this facet to his skillset would add greater depth to his ability.
Final Takeaways
Biereth meets the criteria of not just a poacher by nature, but an elite poacher by quality. One of the best ways to summarise his abilities comes from the visualisation that inspired this analysis.
When searching for good poachers, I looked briefly looked at average shot distance and finishing ability. Mika Biereth finds himself in the top right corner of that scatterplot, suggesting a low average shot distance (note the reversed y axis) and a strong finishing ability. You could call him a tap-in merchant based off that alone, but the third variable in this scatter, non-penalty xG per 90 (lighter points have higher npxG) revealed the uniqueness of Biereth, in that he is able to consistently showcase his movement and finishing at a high volume.
Is this just a purple patch? That will be revealed over time. When a team has a talismanic poacher, opposition defences will make it their mission to crowd and mark him out of games. It will be tougher for Biereth to sustain the quality that he has shown thus far, but if he can, there’s a non-zero chance that his stay in France may not even last a full years as other clubs consider new striking options. Hopefully, Arsenal haven’t completely burned their bridges with him…
