The Bundesliga is a very fun league. High pace transitions, lots of goals, and interesting battles in the Champions League and relegation places. We even got a non-Bayern winner last season. But one aspect of the Bundesliga that I love is the emergence of new superstars every year, especially in the forward areas.
In recent years, we’ve seen the rise of players like Timo Werner, Victor Boniface, Serhou Guirassy and – obviously – Erling Haaland. However, this season, we’ve seen a certain forward come to the forefront, despite having played in the Bundesliga since 2019.
He’s been making headlines for his goalscoring proficiency and is already being touted as a potential signing for big clubs around Europe. Omar Marmoush has become a bags-man this season, and it’s only right that we look what exactly he’s been up to at Frankfurt.
Marmoush is a name that long time Bundesliga fans would be aware of. Originally coming through the youth system in Egypt, Marmoush took his first Bundesliga steps in the green of Wolfsburg, making 5 appearances in the 2019/20 season. He was then loaned to St Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, where he made 9 goal contributions in 19 starts.
A loan to Stuttgart followed, with 8 goal involvements showing Omar’s consistency, even now playing regularly in the top flight. This was rewarded with a full season at Wolfsburg. However, despite playing 33 of 34 available games, he was let go at the end of his contract, being picked up by Eintracht Frankfurt for free – a move that now looks like an absolute steal.
Last season, Marmoush bagged himself 12 goals and 6 assists in 29 games, overperforming his xG by 0.4 and generating 2.93 shot creating actions per 90 minutes. But this season, the Egyptian has really come into his own, and his numbers show this.
Marmoush is a very talented striker with a few super elite traits. Looking at his shooting numbers, despite not getting the best chances or getting into the best shooting positions (54th percentile for npxG per Shot), his striking ability is next to none, ranking in the 100th percentile for non-penalty goals over expected. That is, Marmoush is the best finisher in Europe’s top five leagues right now.
Looking closer at his shooting this season, we can see that whilst Marmoush tends to take his shots from the centre-right hand side of the penalty area, his goals and better chances have tended to come from the centre-left. Having said that however, the goals in which Marmoush has outperformed his xG the most have come from his more frequent right-sided shots. This is all to say, Omar doesn’t even need big chances to score goals. In fact, he’s scored 10 goals with only 5 big chances.
Going back to his general play, one of Marmoush’s best qualities is his ballcarrying. A 78th percentile ranking for progressive carries gives us an idea of the large volume of carries he generates, and a 95th percentile ranking for carries into the penalty area gives as an idea of the location and intent of these carries – to get himself into good positions to shoot or pass. When he does decide to pass, those passes are often dangerous: he ranks in the 98th percentile for expected goals assisted and in the 89th percentile for key passes.
Off the ball, Marmoush is okay-ish, defensively. A 67th percentile ranking for aerial duels is useful in both phases of play, and a 70th percentile ranking for blocks implies that he can read opposition play well and get his body in the way – something very useful for a team like Frankfurt who tend to defend much deeper on the pitch
However, with Frankfurt playing such a deep line of defence (the lowest in the Bundesliga), low rankings for tackles, interceptions and duel success are weak points for Marmoush. Despite being third at the time of writing, they have conceded the fourth most expected goals this season, and Marmoush not being very effective when defending won’t help much.
Omar Marmoush is a player who likes to play to his strengths. As we’ve seen, Marmoush is adept at ball carrying and finishing, and it’s not a surprise to see his position on a ternary plot looking at what forwards tend to do on the ball this season. When we used this ternary plot to look at Joshua Zirkzee, we found that he was an all-rounder who wasn’t predisposed to any particular action when on the ball, carrying, passing and shooting an average amount.
However, Marmoush is much more specialised. Sitting in the bottom centre of the triangle, Marmoush spends a lot of his touches carrying the ball, getting into those dangerous areas in the box. He spends a decent amount of his touches on shots as well, which has contributed to his 99th percentile ranking for shots per 90 this season. However, Marmoush isn’t someone that passes a large amount, despite his high numbers for creativity. This suggests that he only makes passes when the payoff is large – signs of an intelligent player who knows when to pass and when to shoot.
Now that we have an idea of what Marmoush has been up to this season, we can take a closer look at a specific game to see it all in action. Marmouh picked up two goals and an assist in a highly entertaining 3-3 draw against Bayen Munich earlier this season.
When playing against a team as dominant as Bayern, it would be unrealistic to expect forward players to have tons of space, time and freedom further up the pitch. To that end, it’s not a bad thing that Marmoush’s average position during this game was within his own half. However, in a game like this, what really matters is whether a forward can take their chances when they do have an opportunity in the final third – something that Marmoush did.
Marmoush had 2 shots against Bayern. Both resulted in goals. This efficiency, the ability to take chances when they come, is why Marmoush has excelled this season. Once again overperforming on xG and taking shots away from the centre-left area of the penalty area he favours, bagging two goals in this manner was very impressive from the Egyptian.
As we’ve seen from his ternary plot, Marmoush isn’t one to pass, but tends to pick his moments well. This style was evident against Bayern as well. Frankfurt only had 25% possession in that game, with 305 passes compared to Bayen’s 853, so Marmoush’s pass map was never going to be full. His one pass into the penalty area was an assist as well.
One thing was quite consistent with Marmoush in this game: his speed and ability to get past centre-backs. Let’s take a look at his first goal for an example.
Frankfurt had the ball in Bayern’s half on a break. Bayern hadn’t set themselves up well to defend this transition, but with 5 players behind the ball, it wasn’t a sure-fire goal. At this point, Marmoush is the further left player, in front of Guerreiro.
Ansgar Knauff does very well to draw Bayern’s defenders in with the ball, and Faris Chaibi’s inward movement off the ball helps to create a space behind Dayot Upamecano – something that Marmoush caught onto immediately, making a run into that space.
Now, Marmoush is in a foot race with Guerreiro. However, with Omar anticipating the pass by beginning his run early, and with his pace, he beats Rafa in that race, gets onto the ball…
He takes one touch to set himself up, and strikes. Efficient and dangerous were two words to perfectly describe Marmoush’s game against Bayern.
Whilst we’ve seen that Omar Marmoush is a highly effective forward with a big burst of pace and great finishing, it’s important to highlight the potential for the Egyptian to fall off in terms of performances as the season continues, and clubs should be cautious when considering him as a January transfer option. Scoring above his xG this much isn’t sustainable, especially when most of his shots tend to come from low xG positions. On top of that, Frankfurt being a counterattacking team may lead to a lack of chances for Omar as teams begin to cover the space he runs into. It also very much depends on his teammates being able to spot him in space and threading passes to him.
However, whilst he is still at the peak of his powers, Omar Marmoush is a player who has once again highlighted the excitement that comes from the Bundesliga and the high-level players it produces.
